Description:

Cholera is a waterborne infectious disease that continually emerges and remains an important global health burden. We formulate and investigate a cholera model with imperfect vaccination and demographics on complex networks, in which two transmission pathways, indirect environment-to-human and direct human-to-human transmissions, are incorporated simultaneously. The contacts among humans are treated as a heterogeneous network and the contacts between environment and humans as homogenous mixing. Using the spectral analysis method, the basic reproduction number is defined and verified to be a sharp threshold which completely determines global dynamical properties of model. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the theoretical results. The results demonstrate that demographics and the degree distribution of the network are of great importance in cholera propagation, and that the degree distribution is time-dependent until the stationary state is reached. Furthermore, demographics have a significant influence on the basic reproduction number. By increasing the vaccination rate and decreasing the rate at which the vaccine wears off, cholera infection can be effectively controlled. Covid-19 was a major pandemic of the 21st century that flinched away every individual worldwide. The extensive impact of this rapidly spreading deadly virus doomed the health care systems with the unexpected wave wreaked havoc leading to a global health crisis. It has been a high burden on the functioning existing medical system, overloads health professionals, disruption of the medical supply chain. The economy of the nations has been at losses with a significant slowing down in revenue growth over the past 2 years. After taking its toll, drawing away other diseases including cholera. The three developing nations; India, Bangladesh and Nepal, are now at the verge of facing an outbreak of Cholera. It is not surprising to hear cholera in this nation but the fact that its negligence due to Covid-19 pandemic and monkeypox along with a crumbled health system due to the pandemic has made these nations vulnerable for health crisis.

 Along with this three nations, cholera has made its way to different parts of this globe and it is high time that attention must be drawn towards it as mismanagement could even cause life. This study examined the impact of climate change on the occurrence of malaria, pneumonia, meningitis, and cholera in Lokoja City, Nigeria with the aim of investigating the spatial distribution and prevalence of the four kinds of diseases as well as the coping strategies of people in the area. We collected the rainfall and temperature data of Lokoja City during 2000–2020 from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the medical records data of the four kinds of diseases from the Kogi State Ministry of Health. We also conducted a semi-structured questionnaire of 250 residents, who have experienced one of these diseases, to investigate their coping strategies with these diseases. The Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis were used to research the relationship between the climate parameters and cases of diseases. The result showed annual variations in climatic parameters with R2 = 0.0557, 0.0009, and 0.4915 for rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures respectively. A positive and significant relationship were observed between maximum temperature and malaria (r ​= ​0.80), rainfall and malaria (r ​= ​0.54), minimum temperature and meningitis (r ​= ​0.64), as well as rainfall and cholera (r ​= ​0.66) at P ​< ​0.05. For the regression analysis R2 = 0.71, 0.50, and 0.52 for malaria, cholera, and meningitis, respectively at P < 0.05. During 2000–2020, cases of malaria were highest in Ward A with 15,422, while 715 cases of pneumonia were highest in Kupa North. In Ward A 3787 cases of cholera were recorded to be the highest, while cases of meningitis were highest in Kupa North with 2383 cases. Investigation revealed that malaria is more common in the wet season while cholera and meningitis cases were highest in the dry season. The study revealed that the most practiced coping strategy is the use of medications by about 90% of the respondents. More studies are recommended in the study area to establish a causal link between climate change and disease occurrences, and intervention from government in form of prevention and control programmes should be vigorously implemented.

With Regards
Perez
Journal Coordinator
Global Journal of Research and Review